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Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Throwing Cold Water on the Blue Wave

There's no getting around the fact that Republicans are unpopular these days or that they're in for an unpleasant midterm. But should we really believe the flood will reach the Midwest or Rust Belt districts that elevated President Trump to double-digit margins? Patrick Rufini, founding partner of Echelon Insights, doesn't think so. He sits down with Henry to make his case. Plus, Henry draws an important distinction between the lead and the level of predicted vote share to explain why all 2-point edges should not be considered equal. And for today's ad of the week, he examines the viral attack and response in the especially fierce battle for Ohio between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton. Can't get enough of Henry's election analysis? Subscribe to his free weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday.
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Latest podcast episodes

Palestine Inc.

Ekosj
@Ekosj
I recall hearing that, because of all the international aid, Gaza and the West Bank had some of the highest per capita incomes in the non-oil Arab world. I decided to investigate. Finding answers was harder than one would expect. There are per capita GDP numbers published. Those per capita GDP numbers look almost identical to those of Egypt. The two, Egypt (in green) and West Bank/Gaza (in blue), below: In fact, on average, the numbers for Gaza and the West Bank look a bit better than Egypt.
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Mom Wars
Mom Wars

The Due Time

This week, Bethany is joined by Helen Raleigh, a writer, entrepreneur, and speaker, for Pregnancy and Infant Loss Remembrance Day, observed on October 15th. This episode comes with it a trigger warning for those for whom this topic is too difficult to listen to. You can follow Helen's work at theduetime.com.
Host:
Bethany Mandel
Organization:
Ricochet
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The Happy Anachronism: Coffee, Newsprint, and the Inheritance We Risk Losing

Dave Carter
@DaveCarter
After several years of poking a K-Cup for coffee and reading the news on a digital device, my bride and I decided to enjoy the simple splendor of freshly ground coffee and an honest-to-gawd newspaper. Oh my soul (!) how I’ve missed the rich taste of a dark roast coffee so fresh it whispers “You’re welcome” after each sip. Then I opened the newspaper. Not the electronic variety, mind you, with its blinking advertisements, tacky little pop-ups, and assorted invitations to discover what some celebrity wore to the grocery store.
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Dear JD

GrandpaPublius
@GrandpaPublius
You don’t know me, but I read your books, so maybe I know you a bit. I had an experience once, over 40 years ago, that you might relate to. Something unexpected happened, and it made me stop and assess. I ultimately concluded I was promoted too fast. It wasn’t a Peter Principle thing, I was perfectly competent. It was something else. I was accelerating toward a goal that I never took the time to figure out whether I really wanted. Or when I wanted it. At the time, I had three kids. Like you, my youngest was still in diapers.
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Freedom to Learn
Freedom to Learn

Alan Levine on Jewish Day Schools, EFTC Scholarships, & Informing Donors

The new Education Freedom Tax Credit could make a wide array of educational options available for millions of students next year. Alan Levine, CEO of the Jewish Education Access Fund, joins the podcast to explain how the tax credit offers a once-in-a-generation chance to expand access to schools that reflect families' values. Alan explains what donors and families need to know about pledges, donations, and state opt-ins before the credit takes effect on January 1, 2027. Jewish Education Access Fund: https://www.access-fund.org/ Federal Scholarship Tax Credit temporary rules: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/02/2026-20264/federal-scholarship-tax-credit Federal Scholarship Tax Credit proposed rules: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/02/2026-20277/federal-scholarship-tax-credit 🔗 Links & Resources: Visit our website: DFIPolicy.org 💡 Stay Connected: Follow us on Instagram: @DFIPolicy Follow us on Twitter: @DFIPolicy Follow us on Facebook: /DFIPolicy Subscribe to our YouTube channel (@DFIPolicy) for future episodes! 📩 Contact Us: If you have feedback or suggestions for future podcasts, please reach out to us at Podcast@DFIPolicy.org. 🎧 Thank You for Listening: Freedom to Learn is a production of the Defense of Freedom Institute. You can learn more about DFI at DFIPolicy.org. If you enjoyed this episode, please give it a thumbs up, share it, and subscribe for more insights into education law and policy. Thank you for your support!
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The Doctor Will Lecture You Now

Dr. Craniotomy
@Craniotomy
Apparently, my patients have a condition I should be documenting: insufficient political agreement with the treating physician. The treatment will be a bedside lecture. No time to discuss your brain tumor; we must talk politics. Better than a yard sign or a “we are worried about you!” spam text, the white coat is a great vehicle for reaching voters. That is the invitation in Jerry Avorn’s MedPage Today essay on politics in the patient encounter.
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The Entitled Poor: They burn because they cannot build

Henry Castaigne
@HenryCastaigne
They’re better than poor people. [Rich people] They just are. I’ve hung around with plenty of poor people, now I’ve hung out with rich people. They work harder, generally. More focused. The folks I grew up with, the poor people I grew up with, fairly lethargic, did a lot of complaining, smoked a little too much, drank a little too much, blamed everyone but themselves a little too much. -- Adam Carolla in 2014 at his most controversial There are a few ways to judge societies.
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The Learning Curve
The Learning Curve

Boston College’s Melodie Wyttenbach on K-12 Catholic Education

In this episode of The Learning Curve, co-hosts Alisha Searcy of the Center for Strong Public Schools and Prof. Albert Cheng of The Ohio State University speak with Dr. Melodie Wyttenbach, Executive Director of Boston College’s Roche Center for Catholic Education. Dr. Wyttenbach reflects on her career in Catholic schools leadership across the country and how Catholic education’s commitment to the true, the good, and the beautiful can foster a durable faith and sense of purpose in students. She examines the mission and operational realities confronting K–12 Catholic schools, including enrollment, governance, and labor costs, while highlighting promising models such as Cristo Rey’s work-study approach. Melodie considers how Pope St. John Paul II’s witness can help leaders connect faith with young people’s lives, and how a classical liberal arts foundation equips students to navigate modern challenges. Finally, Dr. Wyttenbach explores the expanding landscape of school choice, tax-credit programs, and ESAs, as well as what Pope Leo XIV’s papacy may mean for the future of Catholic education in America and worldwide for families and communities.
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We Are Not France--Yet

Old Bathos
@OldBathos
What happens when large numbers of people oppose not merely a particular law (e.g., Prohibition or the 55-mph speed limit), but reject the legitimacy of the entire legal system and its foundations—and resort to violence to express that rejection? When dealing with a small number of such outlaws, law enforcement and our expensive judicial processes can be deployed. But what happens when their numbers become too large for those institutions to cope?
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The American Idea
The American Idea

Selective Obedience of the Law - Nullification Then, Sanctuary Cities Today

Do states have a constitutional right to nullify or ignore federal laws? Many in the South in the early 19th Century thought so, and argued against national tariffs on those grounds, even provoking a crisis between President Andrew Jackson and South Carolina. But the problem didn’t go away in the 1830s, rearing its head again during the Secession Crisis and in the last few years as states and cities resist federal laws and activities. Professor Dan Monroe explains the Nullification Crisis in plain language, making sense of the complex politics, culture, and economics behind that moment in history, while drawing clear parallels with today’s battles between Washington and certain states. Host: Jeff Sikkenga Executive Producer: Jeremy Gypton Subscribe: https://linktr.ee/theamericanidea Homepage: https://ashbrook.org/the-american-idea-podcast/ Thank you for being part of The American Idea community.
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President Trump Announces a New Fraud Initiative

namlliT noD
@DonTillman
Today President Trump announced a new Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program that effectively crowdsources the search for fraud and corruption, rewarding people for tips that lead to criminal charges. With Nick Shirley! This includes the announcement of a new web site to report incidents of fraud: I think this is a wonderful solution to a whole bunch of problems.
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Not Dead Yet
Not Dead Yet

Francis Collins

The guys are joined by the scientist who led the Human Genome Project and, more recently, the Director of the National Institutes of Health. Epistemological humility is key to public policy and science; the laboratory is a cathedral; the future of medicine looks wildly different thanks to unique gene-based treatments; and there's COVID blame to go around. Come for the faith and science, stick around for the pandemic conversation. Don't miss the journalist correcting the historian on Martin Luther.
Hosts:
BSBen SasseCSChris Stirewalt
Organization:
American Enterprise Institute
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Ride the Sun

Eb Snider
@EbSnider
@sawatdeeka had some pictures of Montana recently. By coincidence I recently upgraded to a new phone after milking the previous one for years. There's a backlog of old photos there that I had to transfer over. Scrolling through reminded me of a motorcycle tour I did some years ago. While still in Canada I ran into a couple of uncharacteristically friendly Quebecers riding too. They had come back from Glacier National Park in Montana, and they showed me some videos and pictures they had taken. I was sold.
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Musk to start giving SpaceX shares to every child in the US

GPentelie
@GPentelie
About $150/share x about 70 million kids = about $10.5 billion. And, it appears, much more to follow. This won't start until June next year, because the shares are subject to lock-up restrictions for 366 days from the June 12, 2026 IPO date. I'm guessing this will be done via the Trump Accounts mechanism. Awesome. It would be great to see more of that. Michael Dell, now Elon Musk. Who'll be next, I wonder? PS: What have you done for the kids, Bernie "Billionaires! Billionaires! Billionaires!" Sanders, et al.?
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The Radio Free Hillsdale Hour
The Radio Free Hillsdale Hour

A Rebirth of American Education

Guest: Matthew Mehan Host Scot Bertram talks with Matthew Mehan, associate dean and associate professor at the Van Andel Graduate School of Government at Hillsdale College in Washington, D.C., about building character in K-12 education, the growing movement to reform education, and his contribution to the upcoming book of essays, The Phoenix Principles: Toward a Rebirth of American Education. To learn more about Hillsdale College, visit www.hillsdale.edu.
Host:
Scot Bertram
Guest:
MMMatthew Mehan
Organization:
Hillsdale College
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The Death Throes of Christian Europe

Brian Watt
@BrianWatt
News outlets reported a few days ago that street protests had materialized in Paris and that the protesters were students upset with the conditions of their schools. This narrative was still spouted by news anchors as late as Saturday morning. Some pundits, like The Five's liberal co-host Jessica Tarlov, chose to ignore the live video images of Palestinian flags, communist flags, and Antifa symbols prominently displayed by the protesters. Also initially dismissed was any mention of Muslim men contributing to the mayhem.
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The Key Climate Change Correlation

Old Bathos
@OldBathos
The New York Times explains that seafood prices are going up because of climate change. Overfishing and higher demand apparently do not affect prices, but warming that has little or no quantifiable effect on fish populations must indeed be why prices are rising. Dr. Roy Spencer's records of satellite data show a current global ocean warming trend of 1.3 degrees C per century, not all of which is attributable to human activities.
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Is Ilhan Omar a US Citizen?

Steve Fast
@SteveFast
Ilhan Omar is in serious trouble. The Constitution requires No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen. There are three possible grounds to believe that Ilhan Omar has never been an American citizen and that she could be denaturalized. 1) She may have been an adult when her father was supposedly naturalized.
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King Cotton in Texas

Seawriter
@Seawriter
To the Confederacy cotton was king. It was the fuel through which they hoped to finance their war of independence from the United States. Texas was an important part of that ambition, an exporter of one-sixth of all cotton that came out of the states making up the Confederacy in 1860. During the Civil War years, that share doubled. The only Confederate state bordering a neutral county, Texas came to distribute roughly one-third of the cotton exported annually by the Confederacy.
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3 Whisky Happy Hour
3 Whisky Happy Hour

Saving Western Civilization Edition

John Yoo turns up this week, along with a cameo from our favorite classicist Alex Priou, for an episode that ranged widely from McDonald's to the prospective deportation of Ilhan Omar to women's "athleisure-wear" in the gym, but in the end resolves to a common theme: are we going to be able to save Western Civilization from those relentless attacks from the Left? (And if you don't think McDonald's is important to Western Civilization, you aren't paying attention!) We have our usual spectrum of views about the whole "civic education" enterprise, and our cameo conversation with Alex Priou of the University of Austin looks at the conservatives who didn't like Secretary Marco Rubio's speech in Athens last week. For the record, we liked it a lot.
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Climate Change Voodoo Math

Greg Strange
@GregStrange
This has been an absolutely devastating hurricane season thus far. Especially if you are a fire-and-brimstone-preaching, doomsday climate fanatic who loves nothing better than to use every hurricane to predict the sky is falling while insisting we only have X years left to save life on Earth. This is because so far you’ve had nothing tropical weather-related to yawp about until Hurricane Isaias came a-callin’ deep into this year’s Atlantic tropical season.
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Something whispered ‘snow’

sawatdeeka
@sawatdeeka
A cinnamon black bear crossing Going-to-the-Sun Road on our day trip to Glacier National Park. My younger daughter requested a family drive for that day, and it was beautiful, with a light blue sky and sun. Taking a short stroll on the Loop Trail at GNP. View from a bridge when you enter the Loop Trail from the road. You just have to get sunflowers in the fall. And more flowers. A tree on our walk above the house. The scene near our house. I've taken a picture from this view more than once to try to capture the depth and layers as you're looking down, and I can't do it. It doesn't feel that steep when you're walking, but these are dramatic levels. So this happened the other day... It's not permanent, but here to remind us that we've got a few precious weeks left to spend time outdoors.
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The Ricochet Podcast
The Ricochet Podcast

A Pain in the Polls

The midterm polls sure don't paint a rosy picture for Republicans. While Henry Olsen, Ricochet's in-house election analyst, isn't here to pretend the data suggest otherwise, he joins James, Charles, and Steve to add dimension to the GOP's bleak prospects. Listeners brave enough for the cold facts will hear important lessons about the Republican Party's growing pains, the value of persuasive speech during tough times, and the necessity of message discipline in getting through them. The gang at least finds some consolation in the fact that the ascendant progressive wing of the Democratic Party will likely weigh down the whole if (or when) they overreach. Ricochet 5 is here! Stay tuned till the end to hear Charles give a rundown of the new features. And check out the new site here: https://ricochet.com Opening sound this week: Susan Collins and Troy Jackson have their final debate interrupted (WCSH Portland), and the President weighs in on the El Sayed candidacy in Michigan. Closing music: "Rendezvous" by Dux, via MotionArray
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